“After reading this chapter, you will be intrigued by all of these forays with exceptionalism. But you will remain convinced that you, personally, have already properly taken them into consideration. Your present understanding of yourself and of the world around…
Blog Archives
Book Report: The Confidence Game
Tagged with: cognition, cognitive dissonance, Eric Knowles, Garry Kasparov, George Orwell, J Frank Norfleet, Jacques Prévert, James Comey, Jay Linn, Jerry Burger, Maria Konnikova, perceptual blindness, persuasion, psychology, Richard Nisbett, Robert Zajonc, Samuel Johnson, storytelling, sunk cost fallacy, Teton Dam, The Confidence Game, Timothy Wilson, Voltaire, Warren Buffett
Posted in Books, Everything, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Math and Science
Book Report: Lost Science
Ferguson has really done a tremendous job researching her subjects and bringing them to life, including enough detail to make things very vivid without overwhelming the reader, and putting everything into context by explaining the focal scientist’s contemporaries, political environment,…
Tagged with: Benjamin Thompson, biography, Ferdinand Verbiest, history, Jean-Baptiste Chappe d'Autheroche, Johannes Kepler, Kitty Ferguson, Lise Meitner, Lost Science, Maria Sibylla Merian, Mary the Jewess, Milutin Milanković, research, science, storytelling
Posted in Books, Everything, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Math and Science
Book Report: Mindware
“Society pays dearly for all the experiments it could have conducted but didn’t. Hundreds of thousands of people have died, millions of crimes have been committed, and billions of dollars have been wasted because people have bulled ahead on their…
Tagged with: cognition, confirmation bias, cost-benefit analysis, Daniel Kahneman, Dialecticism, Drunk Tank Pink, effort heuristic, emoji, endowment effect, fundamental attribution error, HiPPOs, ideomotor mimicry, illusory correlation, logic, loss aversion, Matthew Syed, Mindware, mulling, multiple regression analysis, Nautilus, representativeness heuristic, Richard E. Nisbett, Scared Straight, scientific method, spreading activation, status quo bias, sunk cost fallacy, Superforecasting, The HEAD Game, Thinking Fast and Slow, Will Durant, words that work
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Book Report: The Inner Lives of Markets
“Markets are a means of resource allocation, and often a really effective one at that. But they’re not good for everything – or at least not without a lot of engineering and tweaking. That’s something both free-market advocates, as well…
Tagged with: Adwords, auctions, Champagne fairs, deferred acceptance, economics, fundamental attribution error, George Akerlof, Joseph Stiglitz, lemons, markets, models, Pierre Azoulay, platforms, progress, Ray Fisman, Robert Shiller, Scale, signals, streaming, The Inner Lives of Markets, Tim Sullivan, Vickrey auction, William Vickrey, World War 2
Posted in Books, Everything, Marketing, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Marketing, Math and Science
Book Report: The Only Rule Is It Has To Work
“This was the ugly part of the stats-vs.-tradition debate in baseball: Rather than a conversation about the best way to make baseball decisions, it had become an argument, in which it increasingly felt as if the purpose was to score…
Tagged with: analysis, analytics, availability heuristic, base rate fallacy, baseball, Ben Lindbergh, Bill James, clustering illusion, cognitive bias, confirmation bias, Dan Deeth, Dunning-Kruger effect, focalism, Kurt Russell, sabermetrics, Sam Miller, Sonoma Stompers, The Battered Bastards of Baseball, The Only Rule Is It Has To Work, The Tragically Hip, tradition
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Management, Math and Science, Sports
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Management, Math and Science, Sports
Book Report: Weapons of Math Destruction
“Predictive models are, increasingly, the tools we will be relying on to run our institutions, deploy our resources, and manage our lives. But … these models are constructed not just from data but from the choices we make about which…
Tagged with: bias, big data, Cathy O'Neil, Competitive and Market Intelligence, Deloitte, Duncan Stewart, exploitation, Facebook, false positives, inequality, machine learning, model interpretability, models, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, redlining, Smart People Should Build Things, Success and Luck, The Black Swan, Weapons of Math Destruction
Posted in Books, Everything, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Math and Science
A Morning with Deloitte: TMT Predictions 2018
On the recommendation of my former colleague Dan Deeth, I spent this morning down at the Tannery listening to Deloitte’s Duncan Stewart (@dunstewart) prognosticate on Technology, Media, and Telecommunications. Dan was unable to attend, as he was in Barcelona this…
Tagged with: 5G, AlphaGo, artificial intelligence, ASIC, augmented reality, automation, Dan Deeth, data reduction, DeepMind, Deloitte, Duncan Stewart, electric vehicles, Elon Musk, FPGA, Gartner, Global Internet Phenomena, Google, Hype Cycle, hyperloop, machine learning, media, Mobile World Congress, model interpretability, Pokemon Go, prediction, prognostication, self-driving cars, smart cities, smartphones, technology, technophobia, telecom, WaveNet, Weapons of Math Destruction
Posted in Everything, Math and Science
Posted in Everything, Math and Science
Book Report: Superforecasting
“In so many other high-stakes endeavors, forecasters are groping in the dark. They have no idea how good their forecasts could become. At best, they have vague hunches. More often than not, forecasts are made and then . . .…
Tagged with: adaptability, adversarial collaboration, ambiguity, analysis, Archie Cochrane, Archilochus, Auftragstaktik, Bay of Pigs, belief persistence, Bill Gates, Black Box Thinking, Brier score, Bruce Schneier, Carol Dweck, cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, Cuban missile crisis, Dan Gardner, Daniel Kahneman, Dunning-Kruger effect, Einstein, Expert Political Judgment, expertise, feedback, foxes, George Box, Good Judgment Project, hedgehogs, Helmuth von Moltke, Herbert Simon, Ira Rutkow, John F. Kennedy, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Marx, Matthew Syed, Michael Flynn, Mike Tyson, outside-in, Paul Meehl, Philip E Tetlock, prediction, probability, prognostication, Rick and Morty, Robert McNamara, science, Smooth Jimmy Apollo, Superforecasting, tacit knowledge, The HEAD Game, The Improbability Principle, The Lean Startup, uncertainty, Vladimir Lenin
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
The Scourge of Confirmation Bias
“Scientists are trained to be cautious. They know that no matter how tempting it is to anoint a pet hypothesis as The Truth, alternative explanations must get a hearing. And they must seriously consider the possibility that their initial hunch…
Tagged with: Black Box Thinking, chemtrails, confirmation bias, Dan Gardner, Eric Ries, falsification, hypothesis, Matthew Syed, numbers, Paul Schoemaker, Philip E Tetlock, Philip Mudd, scientific method, Superforecasting, The HEAD Game, The Lean Startup
Posted in Books, Leadership, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Leadership, Math and Science
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