“This was the ugly part of the stats-vs.-tradition debate in baseball: Rather than a conversation about the best way to make baseball decisions, it had become an argument, in which it increasingly felt as if the purpose was to score…
Blog Archives
Book Report: The Only Rule Is It Has To Work
Tagged with: analysis, analytics, availability heuristic, base rate fallacy, baseball, Ben Lindbergh, Bill James, clustering illusion, cognitive bias, confirmation bias, Dan Deeth, Dunning-Kruger effect, focalism, Kurt Russell, sabermetrics, Sam Miller, Sonoma Stompers, The Battered Bastards of Baseball, The Only Rule Is It Has To Work, The Tragically Hip, tradition
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Management, Math and Science, Sports
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Management, Math and Science, Sports
Freelance, ho!
As luck would have it, I’d scored my first freelance gig by doing nothing and then having a five minute conversation. But here’s the twist: this industry was completely new to me, and the nature of the project and subject…
Tagged with: analysis, consulting, freelancing, humility, positioning, Superforecasting, The HEAD Game
Posted in Careers, Everything
Posted in Careers, Everything
Book Report: Superforecasting
“In so many other high-stakes endeavors, forecasters are groping in the dark. They have no idea how good their forecasts could become. At best, they have vague hunches. More often than not, forecasts are made and then . . .…
Tagged with: adaptability, adversarial collaboration, ambiguity, analysis, Archie Cochrane, Archilochus, Auftragstaktik, Bay of Pigs, belief persistence, Bill Gates, Black Box Thinking, Brier score, Bruce Schneier, Carol Dweck, cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, Cuban missile crisis, Dan Gardner, Daniel Kahneman, Dunning-Kruger effect, Einstein, Expert Political Judgment, expertise, feedback, foxes, George Box, Good Judgment Project, hedgehogs, Helmuth von Moltke, Herbert Simon, Ira Rutkow, John F. Kennedy, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Marx, Matthew Syed, Michael Flynn, Mike Tyson, outside-in, Paul Meehl, Philip E Tetlock, prediction, probability, prognostication, Rick and Morty, Robert McNamara, science, Smooth Jimmy Apollo, Superforecasting, tacit knowledge, The HEAD Game, The Improbability Principle, The Lean Startup, uncertainty, Vladimir Lenin
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Book Report: The HEAD Game
“The key message of this book is about how to manage tough decisions and piles of data by applying a few consistent guiding principles. The short version is simple: there is a better way to sort through life’s questions than…
Tagged with: adversarial cooperation, analysis, analytics, charity proposition, CIA, critical thinking, Daryl Morey, decision advantage, decision-making, Deep Thinking, expertise, John Wooden, metrics, Philip Mudd, Superforecasting, The Black Swan, The HEAD Game, The Undoing Project
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Management
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Management
Using the Charity Proposition to Improve Analysis
“Listen to them, without reference to your own views, for elements of their analytic position that make sense to you. Is it possible that every single thing they say – those who oppose you – is wrong? Or are there…
Tagged with: analysis, analytics, assumption trap, charity proposition, decision-making, expertise trap, opinions, Philip Mudd, The HEAD Game
Posted in Leadership, Management
Posted in Leadership, Management
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