“In so many other high-stakes endeavors, forecasters are groping in the dark. They have no idea how good their forecasts could become. At best, they have vague hunches. More often than not, forecasts are made and then . . .…
Blog Archives
Book Report: Superforecasting
Tagged with: adaptability, adversarial collaboration, ambiguity, analysis, Archie Cochrane, Archilochus, Auftragstaktik, Bay of Pigs, belief persistence, Bill Gates, Black Box Thinking, Brier score, Bruce Schneier, Carol Dweck, cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, Cuban missile crisis, Dan Gardner, Daniel Kahneman, Dunning-Kruger effect, Einstein, Expert Political Judgment, expertise, feedback, foxes, George Box, Good Judgment Project, hedgehogs, Helmuth von Moltke, Herbert Simon, Ira Rutkow, John F. Kennedy, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Marx, Matthew Syed, Michael Flynn, Mike Tyson, outside-in, Paul Meehl, Philip E Tetlock, prediction, probability, prognostication, Rick and Morty, Robert McNamara, science, Smooth Jimmy Apollo, Superforecasting, tacit knowledge, The HEAD Game, The Improbability Principle, The Lean Startup, uncertainty, Vladimir Lenin
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Book Report: Deep Thinking
“Our attitude matters, and not because we can stop the march of technological prowess even if we wanted to, but because our perspective on disruption affects how well prepared for it we will be. There is plenty of room between…
Tagged with: AlphaGo, Amos Tversky, artificial intelligence, automation, Bill Gates, Bounce, chess, competition, Dan Ariely, Daniel Kahneman, Data and Goliath, Deep Thinking, Der Speigel, disruption, expertise, Garry Kasparov, innovation, Larry Smith, Larry Tesler, machine learning, Mikhail Botvinnik, Moravec's Paradox, performance, philosophy, pragmatism, privacy, problem solving, Success and Luck, technology, The Pentagon's Brain, Vasily Smyslov, Weapons of Math Destruction, Zlatan Ibrahimovic
Posted in Books, Everything, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Math and Science
