“In that moment, something hit me: It’s just us. I always thought that in this place there would be somebody better, but it’s just this group of people – including me – trying to figure stuff out. I didn’t mean…
Blog Archives
Book Report: Superforecasting
“In so many other high-stakes endeavors, forecasters are groping in the dark. They have no idea how good their forecasts could become. At best, they have vague hunches. More often than not, forecasts are made and then . . .…
Tagged with: adaptability, adversarial collaboration, ambiguity, analysis, Archie Cochrane, Archilochus, Auftragstaktik, Bay of Pigs, belief persistence, Bill Gates, Black Box Thinking, Brier score, Bruce Schneier, Carol Dweck, cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, Cuban missile crisis, Dan Gardner, Daniel Kahneman, Dunning-Kruger effect, Einstein, Expert Political Judgment, expertise, feedback, foxes, George Box, Good Judgment Project, hedgehogs, Helmuth von Moltke, Herbert Simon, Ira Rutkow, John F. Kennedy, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Marx, Matthew Syed, Michael Flynn, Mike Tyson, outside-in, Paul Meehl, Philip E Tetlock, prediction, probability, prognostication, Rick and Morty, Robert McNamara, science, Smooth Jimmy Apollo, Superforecasting, tacit knowledge, The HEAD Game, The Improbability Principle, The Lean Startup, uncertainty, Vladimir Lenin
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
The Scourge of Confirmation Bias
“Scientists are trained to be cautious. They know that no matter how tempting it is to anoint a pet hypothesis as The Truth, alternative explanations must get a hearing. And they must seriously consider the possibility that their initial hunch…
Tagged with: Black Box Thinking, chemtrails, confirmation bias, Dan Gardner, Eric Ries, falsification, hypothesis, Matthew Syed, numbers, Paul Schoemaker, Philip E Tetlock, Philip Mudd, scientific method, Superforecasting, The HEAD Game, The Lean Startup
Posted in Books, Leadership, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Leadership, Math and Science
Book Report: Black Box Thinking
“And this is invariably how progress happens. It is an interplay between the practical and the theoretical, between top-down and bottom-up, between creativity and discipline, between the small picture and the big picture. The crucial point – and the one…
Tagged with: Abraham Wald, Antifragile, Black Box Thinking, Bounce, Chesley Sullenberger, cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, Daniel Kahneman, denial, Eleanor Roosevelt, Eric Ries, Esther Duflo, failure, feedback, flow, Francis Bacon, James Dyson, Jim Collins, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Popper, marginal gains, Matthew Syed, Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, mitigated language, narrative falacy, pre-mortem, Scared Straight, Success and Luck, The Lean Startup, Unilever, When Prophecy Fails
Posted in Books, Leadership, Management
Posted in Books, Leadership, Management
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