“In so many other high-stakes endeavors, forecasters are groping in the dark. They have no idea how good their forecasts could become. At best, they have vague hunches. More often than not, forecasts are made and then . . .…
Blog Archives
Book Report: Superforecasting
Tagged with: adaptability, adversarial collaboration, ambiguity, analysis, Archie Cochrane, Archilochus, Auftragstaktik, Bay of Pigs, belief persistence, Bill Gates, Black Box Thinking, Brier score, Bruce Schneier, Carol Dweck, cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, Cuban missile crisis, Dan Gardner, Daniel Kahneman, Dunning-Kruger effect, Einstein, Expert Political Judgment, expertise, feedback, foxes, George Box, Good Judgment Project, hedgehogs, Helmuth von Moltke, Herbert Simon, Ira Rutkow, John F. Kennedy, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Marx, Matthew Syed, Michael Flynn, Mike Tyson, outside-in, Paul Meehl, Philip E Tetlock, prediction, probability, prognostication, Rick and Morty, Robert McNamara, science, Smooth Jimmy Apollo, Superforecasting, tacit knowledge, The HEAD Game, The Improbability Principle, The Lean Startup, uncertainty, Vladimir Lenin
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Book Report: “Bounce”
“The talent theory of expertise is not merely flawed in theory; it is insidious in practice, robbing individuals and institutions of the motivation to change themselves and society. Even if we can’t bring ourselves to embrace the idea that expertise…
Tagged with: Anders Ericcson, Arsenal, Arsene Wenger, Bounce, Carol Dweck, David Beckham, Desmond Douglas, excellence, expertise, futsal, Greg Norman, Heidi Krieger, Laszlo Polgar, Malcolm Gladwell, Mark Schwarzer, Martin Sheen, Matthew Syed, Mia Hamm, Mozart, Nick Faldo, Outliers, placebo, purposeful practice, Roger Federer, self-development, Shaquille O'Neal, Sian Beilock, Steve Davis, talent, Tiger Woods, Venus Williams, Wayne Gretzky
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Sports
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Sports
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