“After reading this chapter, you will be intrigued by all of these forays with exceptionalism. But you will remain convinced that you, personally, have already properly taken them into consideration. Your present understanding of yourself and of the world around…
Blog Archives
Book Report: The Confidence Game
Tagged with: cognition, cognitive dissonance, Eric Knowles, Garry Kasparov, George Orwell, J Frank Norfleet, Jacques Prévert, James Comey, Jay Linn, Jerry Burger, Maria Konnikova, perceptual blindness, persuasion, psychology, Richard Nisbett, Robert Zajonc, Samuel Johnson, storytelling, sunk cost fallacy, Teton Dam, The Confidence Game, Timothy Wilson, Voltaire, Warren Buffett
Posted in Books, Everything, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Math and Science
Book Report: Superforecasting
“In so many other high-stakes endeavors, forecasters are groping in the dark. They have no idea how good their forecasts could become. At best, they have vague hunches. More often than not, forecasts are made and then . . .…
Tagged with: adaptability, adversarial collaboration, ambiguity, analysis, Archie Cochrane, Archilochus, Auftragstaktik, Bay of Pigs, belief persistence, Bill Gates, Black Box Thinking, Brier score, Bruce Schneier, Carol Dweck, cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, Cuban missile crisis, Dan Gardner, Daniel Kahneman, Dunning-Kruger effect, Einstein, Expert Political Judgment, expertise, feedback, foxes, George Box, Good Judgment Project, hedgehogs, Helmuth von Moltke, Herbert Simon, Ira Rutkow, John F. Kennedy, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Marx, Matthew Syed, Michael Flynn, Mike Tyson, outside-in, Paul Meehl, Philip E Tetlock, prediction, probability, prognostication, Rick and Morty, Robert McNamara, science, Smooth Jimmy Apollo, Superforecasting, tacit knowledge, The HEAD Game, The Improbability Principle, The Lean Startup, uncertainty, Vladimir Lenin
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Book Report: Black Box Thinking
“And this is invariably how progress happens. It is an interplay between the practical and the theoretical, between top-down and bottom-up, between creativity and discipline, between the small picture and the big picture. The crucial point – and the one…
Tagged with: Abraham Wald, Antifragile, Black Box Thinking, Bounce, Chesley Sullenberger, cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, Daniel Kahneman, denial, Eleanor Roosevelt, Eric Ries, Esther Duflo, failure, feedback, flow, Francis Bacon, James Dyson, Jim Collins, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Popper, marginal gains, Matthew Syed, Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, mitigated language, narrative falacy, pre-mortem, Scared Straight, Success and Luck, The Lean Startup, Unilever, When Prophecy Fails
Posted in Books, Leadership, Management
Posted in Books, Leadership, Management
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