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Book Report: Superforecasting

“In so many other high-stakes endeavors, forecasters are groping in the dark. They have no idea how good their forecasts could become. At best, they have vague hunches. More often than not, forecasts are made and then . . .

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Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science

Book Report: Deep Thinking

“Our attitude matters, and not because we can stop the march of technological prowess even if we wanted to, but because our perspective on disruption affects how well prepared for it we will be. There is plenty of room between

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Posted in Books, Everything, Math and Science

Book Report: Black Box Thinking

“And this is invariably how progress happens. It is an interplay between the practical and the theoretical, between top-down and bottom-up, between creativity and discipline, between the small picture and the big picture. The crucial point – and the one

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Posted in Books, Leadership, Management

Book Report: What Should We Be Worried About

“In all sorts of complex systems, this is the general trend: Increasing the coupling between the parts seems harmless enough at first. But then, abruptly, when the coupling crosses a critical value everything changes. The exact nature of the altered state

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Posted in Books, Everything, Finance, Math and Science

Don’t overlook the quietly effective

“The best defenders are those who never tackle.” – Chris Anderson and David Sally, in The Numbers Game In 2001, Sir Alex Ferguson sold the Dutch international defender Jaap Stam to Lazio based in part on match data that showed Stam

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Posted in Leadership, Management, Soccer

Book Report: The Numbers Game

“It is easy…to think of soccer as a game of superstars. They provide the glamour, the genius, the moments of inspiration. They sell the shirts and fill the seats. But they do not decide who wins games and who wins

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Posted in Books, Management, Math and Science, Soccer, Sports

Book Report: The Improbability Principle

“The Improbability Principle is not a single equation, such as Einstein’s famous E = mc², but a collection of strands which intertwine, braiding together and amplifying each other, to form a rope connecting events, incidents, and outcomes. The main strands

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Posted in Books, Everything, Math and Science

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