“In so many other high-stakes endeavors, forecasters are groping in the dark. They have no idea how good their forecasts could become. At best, they have vague hunches. More often than not, forecasts are made and then . . .…
Blog Archives
Book Report: Superforecasting
Tagged with: adaptability, adversarial collaboration, ambiguity, analysis, Archie Cochrane, Archilochus, Auftragstaktik, Bay of Pigs, belief persistence, Bill Gates, Black Box Thinking, Brier score, Bruce Schneier, Carol Dweck, cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, Cuban missile crisis, Dan Gardner, Daniel Kahneman, Dunning-Kruger effect, Einstein, Expert Political Judgment, expertise, feedback, foxes, George Box, Good Judgment Project, hedgehogs, Helmuth von Moltke, Herbert Simon, Ira Rutkow, John F. Kennedy, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Marx, Matthew Syed, Michael Flynn, Mike Tyson, outside-in, Paul Meehl, Philip E Tetlock, prediction, probability, prognostication, Rick and Morty, Robert McNamara, science, Smooth Jimmy Apollo, Superforecasting, tacit knowledge, The HEAD Game, The Improbability Principle, The Lean Startup, uncertainty, Vladimir Lenin
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Book Report: Black Box Thinking
“And this is invariably how progress happens. It is an interplay between the practical and the theoretical, between top-down and bottom-up, between creativity and discipline, between the small picture and the big picture. The crucial point – and the one…
Tagged with: Abraham Wald, Antifragile, Black Box Thinking, Bounce, Chesley Sullenberger, cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, Daniel Kahneman, denial, Eleanor Roosevelt, Eric Ries, Esther Duflo, failure, feedback, flow, Francis Bacon, James Dyson, Jim Collins, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Popper, marginal gains, Matthew Syed, Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi, mitigated language, narrative falacy, pre-mortem, Scared Straight, Success and Luck, The Lean Startup, Unilever, When Prophecy Fails
Posted in Books, Leadership, Management
Posted in Books, Leadership, Management
The Benefits of Repeatability
“If you don’t know what you are doing wrong, you can never know what you are doing right.” – Chen Xinhua Over the past few weeks, I’ve found myself talking at work about the benefits of repeatability and consistency. More…
Tagged with: Bounce, Chen Xinhua, consistency, creativity, feedback, just enough process, Matthew Syed, repeatability
Posted in Leadership, Management, Sports
Posted in Leadership, Management, Sports
| How Your Brand Can S… on The Third Age of Marketin… | |
| Book Review: Brainia… on Book Report: Brainiac | |
 | Lee Brooks on Awkward Meetings – Volume… |
 | Matt Duench on Awkward Meetings – Volume… |
| Book Report: Zone to… on Doomed from Inception: The Hor… |
Leadership, Marketing...and Everything 