Researchers have shown people who use “50%” or “fifty-fifty” often do not mean it literally. They mean “I’m not sure” or “it’s uncertain” – or more simply “maybe.” Previously, I wrote about The Ambiguity of Language. Words are fuzzy, their…
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The Scourge of Confirmation Bias
“Scientists are trained to be cautious. They know that no matter how tempting it is to anoint a pet hypothesis as The Truth, alternative explanations must get a hearing. And they must seriously consider the possibility that their initial hunch…
Tagged with: Black Box Thinking, chemtrails, confirmation bias, Dan Gardner, Eric Ries, falsification, hypothesis, Matthew Syed, numbers, Paul Schoemaker, Philip E Tetlock, Philip Mudd, scientific method, Superforecasting, The HEAD Game, The Lean Startup
Posted in Books, Leadership, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Leadership, Math and Science
