On the recommendation of my former colleague Dan Deeth, I spent this morning down at the Tannery listening to Deloitte’s Duncan Stewart (@dunstewart) prognosticate on Technology, Media, and Telecommunications. Dan was unable to attend, as he was in Barcelona this…
Blog Archives
A Morning with Deloitte: TMT Predictions 2018
Tagged with: 5G, AlphaGo, artificial intelligence, ASIC, augmented reality, automation, Dan Deeth, data reduction, DeepMind, Deloitte, Duncan Stewart, electric vehicles, Elon Musk, FPGA, Gartner, Global Internet Phenomena, Google, Hype Cycle, hyperloop, machine learning, media, Mobile World Congress, model interpretability, Pokemon Go, prediction, prognostication, self-driving cars, smart cities, smartphones, technology, technophobia, telecom, WaveNet, Weapons of Math Destruction
Posted in Everything, Math and Science
Posted in Everything, Math and Science
Book Report: Superforecasting
“In so many other high-stakes endeavors, forecasters are groping in the dark. They have no idea how good their forecasts could become. At best, they have vague hunches. More often than not, forecasts are made and then . . .…
Tagged with: adaptability, adversarial collaboration, ambiguity, analysis, Archie Cochrane, Archilochus, Auftragstaktik, Bay of Pigs, belief persistence, Bill Gates, Black Box Thinking, Brier score, Bruce Schneier, Carol Dweck, cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, Cuban missile crisis, Dan Gardner, Daniel Kahneman, Dunning-Kruger effect, Einstein, Expert Political Judgment, expertise, feedback, foxes, George Box, Good Judgment Project, hedgehogs, Helmuth von Moltke, Herbert Simon, Ira Rutkow, John F. Kennedy, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Marx, Matthew Syed, Michael Flynn, Mike Tyson, outside-in, Paul Meehl, Philip E Tetlock, prediction, probability, prognostication, Rick and Morty, Robert McNamara, science, Smooth Jimmy Apollo, Superforecasting, tacit knowledge, The HEAD Game, The Improbability Principle, The Lean Startup, uncertainty, Vladimir Lenin
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
The Problem of Prognostication
“By 1930, naval arms limitation treaties were in effect, the Great Depression was underway, and the defense planning standard said ‘no war for ten years.’ Nine years later World War II had begun.” – Lin Wells I’m sure we’ve all…
Tagged with: adaptability, agility, Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, George W. Bush, Lin Wells, Obliquity, prediction, Success and Luck, Superforecasting, The HEAD Game, uncertainty
Posted in Leadership
Posted in Leadership
Incompleteness and problem solving
“Almost all real problems are incompletely and imperfectly specified.” – John Kay Did you ever notice that to solve most real-world problems of any complexity, we have to find ways to simplify the situation? Well, economist John Kay noticed, and…
Tagged with: closure, incompleteness, John Kay, Obliquity, prediction, problem solving, problems
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership
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