Blog Archives

Freelance, ho!

As luck would have it, I’d scored my first freelance gig by doing nothing and then having a five minute conversation. But here’s the twist: this industry was completely new to me, and the nature of the project and subject

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Posted in Careers, Everything

Book Report: Superforecasting

“In so many other high-stakes endeavors, forecasters are groping in the dark. They have no idea how good their forecasts could become. At best, they have vague hunches. More often than not, forecasts are made and then . . .

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Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science

The Problem of Prognostication

“By 1930, naval arms limitation treaties were in effect, the Great Depression was underway, and the defense planning standard said ‘no war for ten years.’ Nine years later World War II had begun.” – Lin Wells I’m sure we’ve all

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Posted in Leadership

The Ambiguity of…Numbers?

Researchers have shown people who use “50%” or “fifty-fifty” often do not mean it literally. They mean “I’m not sure” or “it’s uncertain” – or more simply “maybe.” Previously, I wrote about The Ambiguity of Language. Words are fuzzy, their

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Posted in Books, Everything, Marketing

The Ambiguity of Language

“Kent was floored. A phrase that looked informative was so vague as to be almost useless. Or perhaps it was worse than useless, as it had created dangerous misunderstandings.” –¬†Superforecasting In the early part of¬†Superforecasting, the authors talk about the

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Posted in Books, Leadership, Marketing

Book Report: The HEAD Game

“The key message of this book is about how to manage tough decisions and piles of data by applying a few consistent guiding principles. The short version is simple: there is a better way to sort through life’s questions than

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Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Management

The Scourge of Confirmation Bias

“Scientists are trained to be cautious. They know that no matter how tempting it is to anoint a pet hypothesis as The Truth, alternative explanations must get a hearing. And they must seriously consider the possibility that their initial hunch

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Posted in Books, Leadership, Math and Science

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