Blog Archives

The Problem of Prognostication

I’m sure we’ve all heard various misattributed sayings about the challenges of making predictions. I’m a big believer in the uncertainty of future events – be they black swans, outputs of inherently chaotic systems, products of complexity, vagaries of humanity,

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Posted in Leadership

The Ambiguity of…Numbers?

Researchers have shown people who use “50%” or “fifty-fifty” often do not mean it literally. They mean “I’m not sure” or “it’s uncertain” – or more simply “maybe.” Previously, I wrote about The Ambiguity of Language. Words are fuzzy, their

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Posted in Marketing, Everything, Books

The Ambiguity of Language

“Kent was floored. A phrase that looked informative was so vague as to be almost useless. Or perhaps it was worse than useless, as it had created dangerous misunderstandings.” –¬†Superforecasting In the early part of¬†Superforecasting, the authors talk about the

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Posted in Books, Leadership, Marketing

Book Report: The HEAD Game

“The key message of this book is about how to manage tough decisions and piles of data by applying a few consistent guiding principles. The short version is simple: there is a better way to sort through life’s questions than

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Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Management

The Scourge of Confirmation Bias

“Scientists are trained to be cautious. They know that no matter how tempting it is to anoint a pet hypothesis as The Truth, alternative explanations must get a hearing. And they must seriously consider the possibility that their initial hunch

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Posted in Books, Leadership, Math and Science

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