Blog Archives

The Problem of Prognostication

I’m sure we’ve all heard various misattributed sayings about the challenges of making predictions. I’m a big believer in the uncertainty of future events – be they black swans, outputs of inherently chaotic systems, products of complexity, vagaries of humanity,

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Posted in Leadership

Book Report: The HEAD Game

“The key message of this book is about how to manage tough decisions and piles of data by applying a few consistent guiding principles. The short version is simple: there is a better way to sort through life’s questions than

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Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Management

The Scourge of Confirmation Bias

“Scientists are trained to be cautious. They know that no matter how tempting it is to anoint a pet hypothesis as The Truth, alternative explanations must get a hearing. And they must seriously consider the possibility that their initial hunch

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Posted in Books, Leadership, Math and Science

Using the Charity Proposition to Improve Analysis

“Listen to them, without reference to your own views, for elements of their analytic position that make sense to you. Is it possible that every single thing they say – those who oppose you – is wrong? Or are there

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Posted in Leadership, Management

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