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Freelance, ho!

As luck would have it, I’d scored my first freelance gig by doing nothing and then having a five minute conversation. But here’s the twist: this industry was completely new to me, and the nature of the project and subject

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Posted in Careers, Everything

Book Report: Superforecasting

“In so many other high-stakes endeavors, forecasters are groping in the dark. They have no idea how good their forecasts could become. At best, they have vague hunches. More often than not, forecasts are made and then . . .

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Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science

The Problem of Prognostication

“By 1930, naval arms limitation treaties were in effect, the Great Depression was underway, and the defense planning standard said ‘no war for ten years.’ Nine years later World War II had begun.” – Lin Wells I’m sure we’ve all

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Posted in Leadership

Book Report: The HEAD Game

“The key message of this book is about how to manage tough decisions and piles of data by applying a few consistent guiding principles. The short version is simple: there is a better way to sort through life’s questions than

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Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Management

The Scourge of Confirmation Bias

“Scientists are trained to be cautious. They know that no matter how tempting it is to anoint a pet hypothesis as The Truth, alternative explanations must get a hearing. And they must seriously consider the possibility that their initial hunch

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Posted in Books, Leadership, Math and Science

Using the Charity Proposition to Improve Analysis

“Listen to them, without reference to your own views, for elements of their analytic position that make sense to you. Is it possible that every single thing they say – those who oppose you – is wrong? Or are there

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Posted in Leadership, Management

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