“In so many other high-stakes endeavors, forecasters are groping in the dark. They have no idea how good their forecasts could become. At best, they have vague hunches. More often than not, forecasts are made and then . . .…
Blog Archives
Book Report: Superforecasting
Tagged with: adaptability, adversarial collaboration, ambiguity, analysis, Archie Cochrane, Archilochus, Auftragstaktik, Bay of Pigs, belief persistence, Bill Gates, Black Box Thinking, Brier score, Bruce Schneier, Carol Dweck, cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, Cuban missile crisis, Dan Gardner, Daniel Kahneman, Dunning-Kruger effect, Einstein, Expert Political Judgment, expertise, feedback, foxes, George Box, Good Judgment Project, hedgehogs, Helmuth von Moltke, Herbert Simon, Ira Rutkow, John F. Kennedy, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Marx, Matthew Syed, Michael Flynn, Mike Tyson, outside-in, Paul Meehl, Philip E Tetlock, prediction, probability, prognostication, Rick and Morty, Robert McNamara, science, Smooth Jimmy Apollo, Superforecasting, tacit knowledge, The HEAD Game, The Improbability Principle, The Lean Startup, uncertainty, Vladimir Lenin
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science
Book Report: Success and Luck
“If any of you go running or ride a bike, you’ll know that when you’re running of bicycling into the wind, you’re very aware of it. You just can’t wait till the course turns around and you’ve got the wind…
Tagged with: Amos Tversky, behavioural economics, Branko Milanovic, Charlie Munger, David Brooks, E.B. White, economics, Italo Calvino, luck, meritocracy, Napolean Bonaparte, Robert H. Frank, success, Success and Luck, taxes, The Improbability Principle, Tom Gilovich, wealth gap
Posted in Books, Leadership, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Leadership, Math and Science
Speaking of improbable events…
You might have recently seen my book report on The Improbability Principle; this book explains why seemingly highly improbable events actually happen all the time. The other day, I had my own experience with an improbable event, and while it’s not…
Tagged with: Bruno Mars, Cards Against Humanity, literally, Operation, superpowers, The Improbability Principle, Toronto
Posted in Everything
Posted in Everything
Book Report: The Improbability Principle
“The Improbability Principle is not a single equation, such as Einstein’s famous E = mc², but a collection of strands which intertwine, braiding together and amplifying each other, to form a rope connecting events, incidents, and outcomes. The main strands…
Tagged with: Amos Tversky, birthday problem, Carl Sagan, Cauchy distribution, coincidences, Daniel Kahneman, David J Hand, Edward Lorenz, Guassian distribution, John Maynard Keynes, Leonard Mlodinow, Marshall McLuhan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, probabilities, The Big Bang Theory, The Black Swan, The Drunkard's Walk, The Improbability Principle
Posted in Books, Everything, Math and Science
Posted in Books, Everything, Math and Science
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