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Book Report: Superforecasting

“In so many other high-stakes endeavors, forecasters are groping in the dark. They have no idea how good their forecasts could become. At best, they have vague hunches. More often than not, forecasts are made and then . . .

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Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science

The Problem of Prognostication

“By 1930, naval arms limitation treaties were in effect, the Great Depression was underway, and the defense planning standard said ‘no war for ten years.’ Nine years later World War II had begun.” – Lin Wells I’m sure we’ve all

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Posted in Leadership

The Ambiguity of…Numbers?

Researchers have shown people who use “50%” or “fifty-fifty” often do not mean it literally. They mean “I’m not sure” or “it’s uncertain” – or more simply “maybe.” Previously, I wrote about The Ambiguity of Language. Words are fuzzy, their

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Posted in Books, Everything, Marketing

The Ambiguity of Language

“Kent was floored. A phrase that looked informative was so vague as to be almost useless. Or perhaps it was worse than useless, as it had created dangerous misunderstandings.” –¬†Superforecasting In the early part of¬†Superforecasting, the authors talk about the

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Posted in Books, Leadership, Marketing

Schedule or Fantasy?

“Often what looks like a perfectly good schedule turns out to be a fantasy – a wishful projection for how we might spend our very limited time.” – Bruce Tulgan in Not Everyone Gets a Trophy As I was reading¬†Not

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Posted in Books, Careers, Leadership, Management

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