Blog Archives

Book Report: Superforecasting

Posted on February 26, 2018 by Lee Brooks — 9 Comments

“In so many other high-stakes endeavors, forecasters are groping in the dark. They have no idea how good their forecasts could become. At best, they have vague hunches. More often than not, forecasts are made and then . . .…

Tagged with: adaptability, adversarial collaboration, ambiguity, analysis, Archie Cochrane, Archilochus, Auftragstaktik, Bay of Pigs, belief persistence, Bill Gates, Black Box Thinking, Brier score, Bruce Schneier, Carol Dweck, cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, Cuban missile crisis, Dan Gardner, Daniel Kahneman, Dunning-Kruger effect, Einstein, Expert Political Judgment, expertise, feedback, foxes, George Box, Good Judgment Project, hedgehogs, Helmuth von Moltke, Herbert Simon, Ira Rutkow, John F. Kennedy, John Maynard Keynes, Karl Marx, Matthew Syed, Michael Flynn, Mike Tyson, outside-in, Paul Meehl, Philip E Tetlock, prediction, probability, prognostication, Rick and Morty, Robert McNamara, science, Smooth Jimmy Apollo, Superforecasting, tacit knowledge, The HEAD Game, The Improbability Principle, The Lean Startup, uncertainty, Vladimir Lenin
Posted in Books, Everything, Leadership, Math and Science

The Problem of Prognostication

Posted on February 22, 2018 by Lee Brooks — 2 Comments

“By 1930, naval arms limitation treaties were in effect, the Great Depression was underway, and the defense planning standard said ‘no war for ten years.’ Nine years later World War II had begun.” – Lin Wells I’m sure we’ve all…

Tagged with: adaptability, agility, Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, George W. Bush, Lin Wells, Obliquity, prediction, Success and Luck, Superforecasting, The HEAD Game, uncertainty
Posted in Leadership

The Ambiguity of…Numbers?

Posted on February 21, 2018 by Lee Brooks — 1 Comment

Researchers have shown people who use “50%” or “fifty-fifty” often do not mean it literally. They mean “I’m not sure” or “it’s uncertain” – or more simply “maybe.” Previously, I wrote about The Ambiguity of Language. Words are fuzzy, their…

Tagged with: ambiguity, analysis, Barack Obama, CIA, communication, Family Guy, forecasting, Mark Bowden, numbers, probabilities, rain, Superforecasting, uncertainty, weather, xkcd
Posted in Books, Everything, Marketing

The Ambiguity of Language

Posted on February 20, 2018 by Lee Brooks — 2 Comments

“Kent was floored. A phrase that looked informative was so vague as to be almost useless. Or perhaps it was worse than useless, as it had created dangerous misunderstandings.” – Superforecasting In the early part of Superforecasting, the authors talk about the…

Tagged with: analysis, Barack Obama, Bay of Pigs, CIA, communication, Frank Luntz, intelligence, John F. Kennedy, language, Sherman Kent, Superforecasting, uncertainty, words that work
Posted in Books, Leadership, Marketing

Schedule or Fantasy?

Posted on October 15, 2014 by Lee Brooks — 1 Comment

“Often what looks like a perfectly good schedule turns out to be a fantasy – a wishful projection for how we might spend our very limited time.” – Bruce Tulgan in Not Everyone Gets a Trophy As I was reading Not…

Tagged with: Bruce Tulgan, Generation Y, inflation, Not Everyone Gets a Trophy, Obliquity, planning, schedules, tasks, uncertainty
Posted in Books, Careers, Leadership, Management

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